Baeza profile: 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post position, history and more to know

Despite being one of the top Kentucky Derby contenders, Baeza was not officially in the Derby field until Friday when Rodriguez had to scratch from the race. Now that Baeza is in, the lightly raced colt has a big shot to take down the roses.

21 Baeza (12-1)

• Trainer John Shirreffs
• Jockey Flavien Prat
• Last race Second in the Santa Anita Derby by ¾ length
• Career record 4 starts: 1 win, 2 seconds
• Career earnings $148,500
• Best career Beyer Speed Figure 101 (2025 Santa Anita Derby)
• Sire McKinzie

Below, we’ll dig further into Baeza as part of our series profiling all the horses competing in the 151st Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 3. We’ll look back into his past performances, what questions need to be answered Saturday and analyze how the post draw affects his chances.

Kentucky Derby profiles 1 Citizen Bull | 2 Neoequos | 3 Final Gambit | 5 American Promise | 6 Admire Daytona | 7 Luxor Cafe | 8 Journalism | 9 Burnham Square | 10 Grande | 11 Flying Mohawk | 12 East Avenue | 13 Publisher | 14 Tiztastic | 15 Render Judgment | 16 Coal Battle | 17 Sandman | 18 Sovereignty | 19 Chunk of Gold | 20 Owen Almighty | 21 Baeza 

Kentucky Derby picks Michelle Yu | Gene Menez | Jody Demling | Jeff Hochman

What to know about Baeza

Trained by John Shirreffs, who is best known for training fan favorite and Hall of Fame runner Zenyatta, Baeza has come a long way in a short period of time. He didn’t make his debut until December (in a turf race, no less) and didn’t break his maiden until Feb. 14. But that maiden win was fast, earning a 93 Beyer Speed Figure. Other speed figures have the race even faster.

But it was his next performance that established Baeza as a serious racehorse. In the Santa Anita Derby, he ran wide around the first turn and moved early into a fast pace to confront leader Citizen Bull, only to be caught by Kentucky Derby favorite Journalism and losing by ¾ lengths. Baeza earned a 101 Beyer for that effort and arguably ran a better race than Journalism in that race when factoring in the ground loss. (To be fair, Journalism encountered traffic trouble on both turns.)

There’s a lot to like Baeza in the Kentucky Derby. For one, he’s fast. His career-high 101 Beyer is second to only Journalism’s career high (108) among the prospective Derby entrants. He has gotten faster with every race. He is bred to be a classic winner. His half-brother Mage won the Kentucky Derby two years ago, and another half-brother, Dornoch, won the Belmont and Haskell Stakes last year. Baeza’s midpack running style is a perfect fit in a Derby field that is heavy on the extremes with either speed horses or closers. And he’ll be a better price than Journalism at TwinSpires and 1/ST BET.

Baeza would need to turn the tables on Journalism, but there’s a possibility that the lightly raced Baeza has a chance to improve Saturday while Journalism does not.

Post draw analysis

Baeza drew into the field only after Rodriguez had to scratch from the race. As a result, Baeza will leave from the far outside post. While the No. 20 post is not ideal and could lead to ground loss, it’s better than not being in the field at all. Also, jockey Flavien Prat is very conscious about saving ground with all of his mounts, so expect him to get Baeza over as much as possible. A midpack, outside trip seems likely.