The lessons in Labor’s big win, as Liberals face another existential crisis

Last night was meant to be one both Labor and the Liberals could call a win.

But as they went to bed, the Liberals had little reason for hope, and it wasn’t all smooth sailing for Labor either.

Both parties set their benchmarks at the 2017 level — at that time Labor’s best result and the Liberals’ worst, as Colin Barnett was booted from office.

As the count slowed overnight, Labor had surpassed its most optimistic expectations to win 41 seats.

The Liberals have at least doubled their representation in the lower house, which sounds good until you realise they only hold four seats total.

It’s ruined the opposition’s hopes of being a credible force at the 2029 election, potentially extending Labor’s rule to four terms.

But there’s an undercurrent neither party expected, and which could shape WA’s political landscape for years to come.

How successful both sides are at responding to it might decide the long-term futures of Labor and the Liberals.

Splitting the swing

The 17 per cent swing away from Labor, as of Saturday night, would ordinarily have been great news for the conservatives, washing away much of what Mark McGowan’s cult following brought to the party in the COVID election of 2021.

But of that swing, just five per cent went back to the Liberals – half of what they lost four years ago – and one per cent to the Nationals.

They needed, and were expecting, much more.

Instead, that swing splintered across minor parties and independents.

Pollster Kos Samaras puts that down to millennials – roughly 29 to 44-year-olds who make up a growing proportion of voters.

“They are extremely volatile on the outer suburbs, where they’re feeling the cost-of-living pressures the most,” he said.

“In the inner parts of Perth, they are probably the reason why Labor is holding these historic conservative seats … they are progressive, and they’re going to have a big impact at the federal election.

“But in the outer suburbs, I think the coalition has a bit of work to do to convince these clearly angry voters to actually vote for them.”

Surprise losses

The work ahead was clear as the results came in – including at leader Libby Mettam’s event.

“It has been a tough day guys, but we’re going to get a great result in Cottesloe,” deputy leader Steve Martin told the party’s celebration in that seat.

That holding onto Cottesloe, the absolute jewel in the Liberal Party’s lacklustre crown, was one of the few things the party could celebrate is a sign of just how bruising the night was.

Their wins in Carine and Kalamunda should be attributed to strong local campaigns, rather than any broader factors, sources on both sides said.

Clinging onto Churchlands is a positive, but to have seen such a small swing is undoubtedly bruising for a seat both sides put so much effort into.

“If I win, I win, and if I don’t win, well, Labor congratulations, I will tip my hat to you and say you got it right,” Basil Zempilas said at the start of the night.

The tight result isn’t quite a resounding win for Zempilas and shows Labor’s relentless attacks combined with pressure from an independent worked.

The biggest disappointments were in seats like Warren-Blackwood, Bateman, Scarborough and South Perth – former Liberal heartlands that both sides had expected would easily come back.

“They’re going to have to start finding new homes,” Samaras said.

“Because just like the Labor Party discovered in the east coast of this country … losing seats to the Greens, you can’t always spend all your money trying to win back seats that used to be your heartland seats.

“You’re going to have to start finding new places to win seats and this is the challenge that the Liberal Party in particular, in this state, has not wrapped their head around.”

What does it mean for Labor?

Despite the swing against it, WA Labor will be chalking this up as a major victory.

Not only has the arty held onto its thumping majority, but it has retained seats that were unexpected Labor gains in 2021 that many expected to turn blue – like Scarborough, Riverton, and South Perth.

It has an emphatic mandate to crack on with its policy agenda, but will likely lose its majority in the upper house and be forced to negotiate with a new-look crossbench.

Mr Samaras declared WA Labor to be “the best Labor branch in the country”.

“Yes, there has been a correction, but the primary vote in some of these seats in the outer suburbs that Labor holds is just astronomical.

“Rita [Saffioti’s] seat is close to 60 per cent. That is unheard of in Australian politics.

“It is the best Labor branch in the country, it is very good at winning elections and it is very good at suburban politics.”

With several MPs retiring, and so many Labor MPs retaining their seats, the inevitable jostling for cabinet positions will get underway.

Among those looking for a promotion to cabinet will be Kingsley MP Jessica Stojkovski, Kimberley MP Divina D’Anna,  Mirrabooka MLA Meredith Hammat, and Cockburn MLA David Scaife.

Lessons for a third term

The drift away from the Coles and Woolworths of the political world isn’t new but has well-and-truly arrived in WA.

For now, it’s Liberals bearing the brunt of it, but Labor won’t escape its consequences.

They’ve still got a huge buffer to lose and still maintain government, but third terms can be notoriously difficult.

Roger Cook and his team will need to find a way to not be distracted by another thumping win and take some useful lessons away from tonight.

For the Liberals, this is the third election in a row they’ve been dealt a dire warning about their future existence.

They’ve struggled to convert that to more votes twice in a row now.

There will need to be some more difficult conversations to work out what to do differently this time around.

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